Posts by Paul Constant

The Same Business Owners Who Threatened Doom Over the $15 Minimum Wage Are Now Predicting Doom Over Secure Scheduling

July 13, 2016 Paul Constant
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Minimum Wage, Scheduling
"Step right up! The crystal ball reveals all..."

“Reply hazy try again later.”

The conservative Washington Policy Center notes that—gird your loins, because here comes a shock—some local business owners are threatening doom if Seattle’s City Council passes a secure scheduling law

Now the president and COO of El Gaucho Hospitality, which operates the popular and high-end El Gaucho steak restaurants, has joined the fray.  In a letter that was recently emailed to 80,000 El Gaucho customers, a blog posted on the company’s website, and an interview published in the Puget Sound Business Journal, Chad Mackay says the proposed restrictive scheduling regulations are “absurd.”

The WPC post says “Mackay warns such micromanagement will harm the very workers the rules are supposed to protect.” Which is the sort of thing that employers always warn when any laws are proposed that might benefit workers. Business owners are always “concerned” that the laws will hurt those the very workers they’re supposed to help. Much in the same way that anti-seat-belt activists (and yes, those do exist) argue that seat belt laws hurt the very drivers they mean to help, or the way that American business owners used to argue that child labor was for the good of the child.

This isn’t the first time that Mackay has spoken up for the supposed “good” of his workers. Mackay warned Payscale.com that “Some will be hurt by” Seattle’s $15 minimum wage increase, and he argued that “What will never really be known is how many people didn’t get a job because it no longer exists or those that lost jobs or hours due to such a dramatic increase.” (Considering that Seattle is within the range of full employment, it’s hard to get nostalgic for all those imaginary underpaid jobs that might have hypothetically been lost.) Why, Mackay apparently cared so much about the workers who would be hurt by Seattle’s $15 minimum wage that he was a top donor for a failed effort to undo it.

So when we consider Mackay’s forecast for secure scheduling, we should also take his predictions about the minimum wage into account. His claims for the harm secure scheduling will do for his employees are eerily similar to his claims about the $15 minimum wage. Was he right about the minimum wage?

Uh, no. In fact, his business seems to be doing just fine. Shortly after the $15 minimum wage became law and just a few months after his anti-$15 referendum fell flat, Mackay bragged about his big plans for El Gaucho to the Puget Sound Business Journal:

Mackay wants to grow the existing business, and also has plans to add a couple of stories onto the existing El Gaucho Inn. He wants to expand the hotel and add a rooftop entertainment area with a retractable roof for corporate events, intimate weddings and more… He wants to add a store in Seattle where the select seafood and high-end meats he sources for his restaurants are available to the public to buy.

Doesn’t sound to me like a man who’s worried he’ll be able to afford to pay his employees. And in fact, just two weeks ago, El Gaucho posted an ad on the Reddit.com thread SeaJobs looking for employees, specifically a dishwasher who would be paid at $15-16 per hour and a sauté cook for $17-19 per hour. Oh, and those positions are for the El Gaucho in Bellevue, where the minimum wage is currently $9.47 per hour.

So from the outside, it sure looks like Mackay’s business is doing fine, despite his warnings that the minimum wage laws would hurt the very people they were meant to help. Now that he’s making the exact same threats over secure scheduling, are you really inclined to believe him? His record as a prognosticator is really quite poor. Maybe he should stick to steaks.

Chase, Target, and Starbucks Are Raising Their Minimum Wages. Is That Enough?

July 12, 2016 Paul Constant
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Economics, Minimum Wage
They’re not a good bank, but at least they’re slightly less predatory!

They’re not a good bank, but at least they’re slightly less predatory!

Today, Jamie Dimon, the chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, wrote in the New York Times that Chase is giving its lowest-paid employees a raise:

Our minimum salary for American employees today is $10.15 an hour (plus meaningful benefits, which I’ll explain later), almost $3 above the current national minimum wage. Over the next three years, we will raise the minimum pay for 18,000 employees to between $12 and $16.50 an hour for full-time, part-time and new employees, depending on geographic and market factors.

A pay increase is the right thing to do. Wages for many Americans have gone nowhere for too long. Many employees who will receive this increase work as bank tellers and customer service representatives. Above all, it enables more people to begin to share in the rewards of economic growth.

This comes one day after Starbucks announced that their employees will get a raise ranging from five to fifteen percent, in the form of increased wages and stock awards. Of course, Chase and Starbucks are following a business trend; Target announced in April that they’re raising the minimum wage to $10 an hour, and Walmart raised their staff pay in January.

The reason why these companies are raising their wages is because the federal minimum wage — that’s $7.25, in case you’re not keeping track — hasn’t gone up since July 24th of 2009, an increase that passed through Congress way back in 2007. Inequality keeps expanding as profits trickle up to the top one percent and never come back down. Of course Chase, Starbucks, Target, and Walmart aren’t doing this because it’s the kind thing to do, or even the right thing to do. They’re doing this because it’s becoming impossible to hire good staffers on the minimum wage.

As soon as Dimon’s editorial was published this morning, though, the perennially wrong blogger at Forbes, Tim Worstall, misinterpreted the situation. As is custom, Worstall in a roundabout way attributed Dimon’s actions to the Invisible Hand of the Market:

… the real message is that economic policy in the United States is actually working. Unemployment is down around where we think full employment generally is and thus firms are having to raise wages and compensation in order to be able to attract the staff they want. This has been the aim of Federal Reserve policy all along and it’s fun when economic plans actually work, isn’t it? It’s also quite joyous to see one quite as nakedly capitalist as Dimon underlining that Karl Marx was in fact right about what improves the workers’ wages — that full employment.

Nice to see Worstall cheerleading for President Obama’s economic policy, but Dimon isn’t operating on behalf of the market; he’s a businessman playing a shrewd decision off for maximum publicity. And this latest announcement from Chase doesn’t mean what Worstall think it means — the market isn’t a sentient being that always hunts for equilibrium, and full employment does not lead to higher wages for everyone. This concept that the market, without government intervention, will eventually settle on a good minimum wage is at best lazy thinking and at worst a harmful delusion of animism.

The market will not decide on a minimum wage that benefits everyone. The market is made up of people making choices. Individual owners will figure out how little they can get away with paying, and minimum-wage workers will have to figure out how to survive on that. And as in all large groups of humans, there will be people who try to behave like good citizens and there will be people who prey on the lowest common denominator. Not everyone can work for Target or Starbucks; some will wind up employed by more predatory bosses.

And the thing is, those lowest common denominator employers are given an advantage in today’s market. As the South Seattle Emerald noted today, some REI retail employees are paid so little that they can qualify for food stamps. This means that other outdoor equipment outfitters who do pay their employees a living wage are not just competing with REI’s low wages, but also with a government subsidized program funded by taxpayers. REI’s dishonorable actions drag everyone else’s hiring practices down a little bit further.

As much as I appreciate these large business owners starting down a path to paying livable wages, it’s vital for the government to establish a reasonable floor. A minimum wage is absolutely necessary for the common good — by which I mean for workers and for businesses. It’s not a matter of fairness, it’s a matter of making sure the cheaters get caught and legal businesses don’t get penalized for following the rules. That’s not the market’s job. In fact, that’s why we have a government.

Daily Clips: July 8, 2016

July 8, 2016 Paul Constant
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Daily Clips

SHOOTINGS IN DALLAS: It’s been an incredibly difficult week for America. The media seems eager to paint the Dallas shootings as part of a larger “War on Police.” That is not true; police have reported that the shooter disavowed the Black Lives Matter movement. What this was, was another in a long string of horrific mass shootings. This time, the shooter targeted police officers. Last time, it was gay men. Once, it was Batman fans. The unifying theme in these shootings is that a small number of men choose to use guns to enact their twisted wills on the world, and we make it way too easy for them to get those guns.

JUNE’S JOBS REPORT IS GREAT: Here’s some good news:

The US economy gained 287,000 jobs in June, the strongest monthly result of 2016. The unexpectedly strong result helps put to rest fears of the US economy tipping into recession — a recession that would have been bad for Hillary Clinton’s chances of capturing the White House in November.

Here’s Donald Trump on May’s weak jobs numbers last month:

Weirdly, Trump has yet to tweet about the June numbers. I’m sure it’s just a matter of time.

 HATE LOSES: The anti-transgender bathroom initiative did not make the November ballot in Washington, says Joseph O’Sullivan at the Seattle Times:

The proposed initiative to restrict bathroom and locker-room access for transgender people won’t be on Washington state’s November election ballot.

The campaign in support of Initiative 1515 indicated Thursday it couldn’t gather the 246,000 signatures needed, according to David Ammons, spokesman for the Washington Secretary of State’s Office.

SPEAKING OF LGBT RIGHTS: King County just made a welcome announcement:

The National Gay & Lesbian Chamber of Commerce (NGLCC), the business voice of the LGBT community, is excited to announce that King County Executive Dow Constantine has decided to bring contracting and procurement opportunities to the thousands of LGBT-owned businesses in the region. With a population of more than 2.1 million residents, King County is the 13th-largest county in the United States. It will be just the second county, after Essex County in New Jersey, to track how many contracts are awarded to businesses owners who are gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender.

 

 

 

New Poll Shows Washington Voters Overwhelmingly Favor Initiative 1491

July 7, 2016 Paul Constant
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Guns
SPD Chief Kathleen O'Toole speaking at the February launch rally for I-1491.

SPD Chief Kathleen O’Toole speaking at the February launch rally for I-1491.

Yesterday, Raise Up Washington turned in over 360,000 signatures supporting their initiative to raise the minimum wage and introduce paid sick leave statewide. Today, another initiative traveled to Olympia to turn in some 330,000 signatures: the Alliance for Gun Responsibility took a major step toward getting Extreme Risk Protection Orders on the ballot this November.

What are Extreme Risk Protection Orders? As I reported back in February, Alliance Executive Director Renee Hopkins described them as a way to “allow family members and law enforcement officers… to ask a judge to temporarily suspend a person’s access to firearms if there is documented evidence of dangerous mental illness or a high risk of violent behavior.” Two of the deadliest shootings in Washington state history — the Jewish Federation shooting in 2006 and the Cafe Racer shooting in 2013 — could likely have been avoided had Extreme Risk Protection Orders been in place. This is the second time Washington voters will directly take on the NRA at the ballot box, after 2014’s successful Washington Universal Background Checks for Gun Purchases initiative.

And at the moment, things are looking good for I-1491 this November. A Public Policy Polling poll commissioned by the Northwest Progressive Institute in June asked 679 likely Washington voters how they’d vote on I-1491 if the election were held today. The results:

  • Yes: 73%
    • Definitely vote yes: 56%
    • Probably vote yes: 17%
  • No: 21%
    • Probably vote no: 11%
    • Definitely vote no: 10%
  • Not sure: 5%

As NPI’s Cascadia Advocate points out:

The overall “Yes” figure is certainly impressive (73%!), but what really stands out is that an outright majority of voters fall into the Definitely vote yes camp. That 56% number suggests that most Washingtonians are very enthusiastic about I-1491.

It’s obvious that the American people are sick of gun violence. And as the Democrats’ filibuster in the Senate and sit-in in the House have proven, NRA-funded Republican lawmakers are making changes impossible on the federal level. So states and cities are on their own right now when it comes to passing responsible gun laws. And this poll proves that voters are clamoring for the chance to face down the NRA at the ballot box. This is how national movements happen; it’s how same-sex marriage went from a city issue to a state issue to the law of the land. The public leads their elected officials, not the other way around.

But these poll numbers—as flat-out terrific as they may be—shouldn’t make you complacent. We’ve seen too many good politicians and ideas lose at the ballot box because voters couldn’t be bothered to actually come out and vote. It’s important to talk about I-1491 to friends and family. Share your support on social media. We shouldn’t be satisfied until this bill and others like it pass by landslide margins all across the country. We’ve got a long way to go, but at least we’re starting out on the right foot.

Daily Clips: July 7, 2016

July 7, 2016 Paul Constant
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Daily Clips

IT HAPPENED AGAIN: Philando Castile is the second African-American man to be shot by a policeman in less than 24 hours. Like Alton Sterling, Castile died on camera. Castile was legally carrying a firearm, but the NRA doesn’t seem to care.

CITY COUNCIL PROMOTES PAID PARENTAL AND FAMILY LEAVE: Check out the new proposed policy for city employees over at Councilmember Lorena González’s page.

VIRAL PETITION BERATES “EXTREME LABOR CUTS” Janet I. Tu at the Seattle Times writes:

A Starbucks barista’s petition complaining that the coffee chain has cut working hours in its stores to the point of “gross underemployment” for workers has garnered more than 11,000 signatures and the attention of top Starbucks executives.

“THERE’S GOING TO BE A WHOLE LOT OF HAPPY STORE MANAGERS” Check out this great Marketplace story by Andy Uhler on raising the overtime threshold.

You Won’t Believe How This Dumb Think Tank Wastes Money That Could Have Gone to Minimum-Wage Workers

July 6, 2016 Paul Constant
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Minimum Wage
Paul Ryan: against raising the minimum wage, but presumably for buying wasteful full-page ads in the New York Times.

Paul Ryan: against raising the minimum wage, but presumably for buying wasteful full-page ads in the New York Times.

Last week, think tank/PR firm the Employment Policies Institute—not the good EPI; the bad EPI—paid for a full-page ad in the New York Times protesting the $15 minimum wage. The ad, which depicted an unflattering caricature of SEIU president Mary Kay Henry (because it’s always smart to mock your opponents’ physical appearance), argued that the $15 minimum wage would kill “starter jobs.”

Why did the ad run last week? Who knows? Why did the ad run at all? Well, presumably the organization, which Goldy pointed out is most likely funded by “the restaurant, accommodations, and retail industries,” had to have some kind of splashy results to show its backers. Because the not-that-EPI’s great War Against $15 is really not going well. They’re losing, and their backers can’t be thrilled about how badly they’re losing.

Here’s how badly the not-that­-EPI’s war on raising the wage is going: Some 63 percent of Americans support raising the minimum wage to $15 by 2020. Every time you turn around, a new city or state is getting on the road to $15. Several states, including Washington, are voting to raise the wage this November. President Obama is a vocal supporter of raising the wage, as is Secretary Clinton. Walmart and Target have voluntarily raised their minimum starting wages because the government hasn’t kept up. Hell, even a majority of small business owners believe the minimum wage should be raised. Basically, the not-that-EPI just has Paul Ryan and Donald Trump on its side. And even Donald Trump isn’t sure where he stands on the minimum wage.

But really all the not-that-EPI is proving with this ad is that they have enough extra money lying around to take out a full-page ad in the New York Times. I don’t know how much they paid, but based on the Times’s own rate cards (PDF), the rate for a full-page, full-color national ad in the business section is $214,733. Now, there’s every chance that the not-that-EPI got a sweetheart deal of some sort out of the Times, so let’s round the ad rate down to an even $200,000.

Assuming, then, that the not-that-EPI’s coffers are filled by large employers in the restaurant and retail industries, the money to pay for that ad could have instead been used to raise more than 25,800 hours of work paid at the national minimum wage of $7.25 an hour to a more reasonable rate of $15 per hour. That’s over a thousand days of continuous work that could have been decently compensated. Instead, the money was blown on a splashy ad that likely changed zero minds. But that’s just par for the course for the EPI, which loves spending tons of other peoples’ money in order to accomplish not much of anything.

Because the whole argument that if the minimum wage goes up, employers will stop hiring people is obviously false. When the minimum wage goes up, jobs don’t die. Employment numbers don’t plummet when you raise the wage. We have 78 years of data that proves this. Groups like the not-that-EPI can buy all the ludicrously expensive advertising they want, but they’re not going to change anyone’s minds with it. All they’re doing is ensuring that the people who work for their backers won’t get a raise until their employers are absolutely required to pay it. What a waste.

Daily Clips: July 6, 2016

July 6, 2016 Paul Constant
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Daily Clips

ALTON STERLING WAS SHOT: A graphic video shows Baton Rouge police wrestling an African-American man named Alton Sterling to the ground and shooting him.

CLINTON PROMOTES DEBT-FREE EDUCATION PLAN: Hillary Clinton will unveil a higher education plan that incorporates major aspects of Bernie Sanders’s education policy:

Clinton is adding three features to her plan for higher education policy, called the “New College Compact.“ They include eliminating tuition at in-state public universities for families making under $125,000 by 2021 and restoring year-round Pell Grant funding so students can take summer classes to finish school quicker.

WASHINGTON STATE DECIDES: Joel Connelly at the Seattle PI writes about two measures that are likely to make it to the ballot in November:

Initiative 1433 would increase the state’s minimum wage, currently at $9.47 an hour, in phases to $13.50 an hour by 2020. I-1433 would allow workers to earn an hour of paid sick leave for every 40 hours spent on the job.

 Initiative 1491 would provide for extreme risk protection orders, allowing family members or law enforcement to ask that courts temporarily suspend a person’s access to firearms if there is documented evidence that a person’s access to guns threatens his/her life and that of others.

REPUBLICANS TALK A GOOD ECONOMIC GAME: Kevin Drum at Mother Jones points out something that has been staring us in the face for a while:

….economies always recover eventually. Conservatives take advantage of this fact by loudly and clearly insisting that their proposed tax cuts will supercharge economic growth. They know that eventually there will be growth, and when it happens they can then loudly and clearly insist that their tax cuts were responsible. Since they’ve been loudly and clearly saying this all along, ordinary citizens conclude that they’re right.

Democrats don’t really do this.

 

Daily Clips: July 5, 2016

July 5, 2016 Paul Constant
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Daily Clips

FBI OFFERS RECOMMENDATION IN CLINTON EMAIL CASE: The FBI does not recommend charges in the Clinton email case, says the New York Times:

The F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, said on Tuesday that the bureau would not recommend criminal charges in Hillary Clinton’s handling of classified information, lifting an enormous legal cloud from her presidential campaign, hours before her first joint campaign appearance with President Obama.

Comey called Clinton “extremely careless.”

HOUSE TO PICK UP GUN DEBATE THIS WEEK: The House is set to vote on a Republican-sponsored gun responsibility law this week which introduces…

…restrictions to bar people suspected of terrorist ties from purchasing firearms. Republican Senator John Cornyn introduced a similar bill last month, but Senate Democrats rejected it, arguing it was unworkable. House Democrats are expected to do the same.

DONALD TRUMP CONTINUES TO BE DONALD TRUMP: Paul Ryan says Trump’s Star of David tweet was “ridiculous,” adding that “anti-Semitic images have no place in a presidential campaign.” Ryan added, “I really believe he’s gotta clean up the way his new media works.” Ryan continues to bravely stand behind Trump, though.

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