Maybe Even Liberals Are Wrong About Economics?
There’s an old economics joke about the economist who, when faced with empirical evidence confirming the efficacy of a new policy, sniffs, “It may work in practice. But does it work in theory?”
And this disconnect between theory and reality pretty much sums up the current state of economics.
For example, take the debate over the capital gains tax. As Matthew Yglesias points out on Vox, “even very liberal members of Congress” support preferential treatment of investment income:
In practice, there appears to be very strong political consensus around preferential treatment for investment income. Even very liberal members of Congress, for example, do not propose ending the exemption of capital gains income from the payroll tax that finances Social Security. Nor do liberal members of Congress propose to end the exemption of profits made by selling owner-occupied homes from capital gains taxation. Countries all around the world feature some form of preferential treatment of investment income, and despite the partisan controversies around the capital gains tax rate nobody in American politics is actually proposing to do away entirely with our own preferential treatment.
Well, not nobody. But surely that’s the broad economic consensus—despite the lack of real world evidence to back it up:
Empirical studies also struggle to confirm the idea that tax rates on investment income are an important driver of real investment activity. A recent, statistically sophisticated study of the 2003 dividend tax cut by Danny Yagan, for example, finds that “the tax cut caused zero change in corporate investment.”
Sound familiar? There’s a ton of very compelling math demonstrating that preferential rates drive investment—just like there’s a ton of very compelling math demonstrating that a higher minimum wage destroys jobs—and yet there’s little or no empirical evidence to suggest that either model actually predicts how the real economy really works.
Weird, huh?
And so while yes, even liberals have largely bought into these neoclassical models, that consensus doesn’t make these models any more true. In fact, the same mathematical models that predict that when wages rise employment falls, and when taxes fall investment rises—are based on the same theories that built the mathematical models that failed to predict the economic calamity of the Great Recession.
Liberals need to do more than just advocate for better practice; they need to abandon convention and more fully embrace better theories that more accurately model the workings of the real economy.







