Posts by Goldy

Maybe Even Liberals Are Wrong About Economics?

 

There’s an old economics joke about the economist who, when faced with empirical evidence confirming the efficacy of a new policy, sniffs, “It may work in practice. But does it work in theory?

And this disconnect between theory and reality pretty much sums up the current state of economics.

For example, take the debate over the capital gains tax. As Matthew Yglesias points out on Vox, “even very liberal members of Congress” support preferential treatment of investment income:

In practice, there appears to be very strong political consensus around preferential treatment for investment income. Even very liberal members of Congress, for example, do not propose ending the exemption of capital gains income from the payroll tax that finances Social Security. Nor do liberal members of Congress propose to end the exemption of profits made by selling owner-occupied homes from capital gains taxation. Countries all around the world feature some form of preferential treatment of investment income, and despite the partisan controversies around the capital gains tax rate nobody in American politics is actually proposing to do away entirely with our own preferential treatment.

Well, not nobody. But surely that’s the broad economic consensus—despite the lack of real world evidence to back it up:

Empirical studies also struggle to confirm the idea that tax rates on investment income are an important driver of real investment activity. A recent, statistically sophisticated study of the 2003 dividend tax cut by Danny Yagan, for example, finds that “the tax cut caused zero change in corporate investment.”

Sound familiar? There’s a ton of very compelling math demonstrating that preferential rates drive investment—just like there’s a ton of very compelling math demonstrating that a higher minimum wage destroys jobs—and yet there’s little or no empirical evidence to suggest that either model actually predicts how the real economy really works.

Weird, huh?

And so while yes, even liberals have largely bought into these neoclassical models, that consensus doesn’t make these models any more true. In fact, the same mathematical models that predict that when wages rise employment falls, and when taxes fall investment rises—are based on the same theories that built the mathematical models that failed to predict the economic calamity of the Great Recession.

Liberals need to do more than just advocate for better practice; they need to abandon convention and more fully embrace better theories that more accurately model the workings of the real economy.

Jeb Bush “100% Wrong” on Overtime, Economists Say

Met Jeb

His campaign website really wants you to know that Jeb!™ takes selfies at diners, just like everybody else! And it turns out, his understanding of basic economics is just as ordinary.

Jeb!™ has long been billed as “the smart Bush,” which turns out not to be a very high bar judging from the GOP frontrunner’s tenuous grasp on economics.

First there was Jeb!™’s clueless prescription for 4 percent growth: “People need to work longer hours,” he told the New Hampshire Union Leader, apparently oblivious to the fact that Americans report working longer hours and taking fewer vacation days than workers in any other developed nation. And then there is his bizarre insistence that expanding overtime pay would result in “less overtime pay,” “less wages earned,” and fewer jobs.

And it’s not just smart-ass bloggers like Paul and I who think Jeb!™ is talking kinda stupid. According to The Guardian, economists from across the spectrum think he “should be embarrassed” by his recent overtime claims:

Numerous economists attacked Bush’s statement, calling him woefully misinformed. And several studies on the rule contradict Bush’s assertion that the overtime rules would “lessen the number of people working”.

Daniel Hamermesh, a University of Texas labor economist, said: “He’s just 100% wrong,” adding that “there will be more overtime pay and more total earnings” and “there’s a huge amount of evidence employers will use more workers”.

It’s a consensus joined by the not-so-lefty economists at Wall Street kraken Goldman Sachs, who estimate the higher overtime threshold would create 120,000 new jobs, and corroborated by the overtime-rule-hating National Retail Federation, which bemoans that the proposed rule would force employers to hire 117,500 new part-time workers in the restaurant and retail industries alone.

Oops.

Republicans like to defend the tenets of trickle-down (that lower taxes, fewer regulations, and smaller government is the only path toward growth and prosperity) by rolling their eyes and exclaiming: “It’s Econ 101!” As if taking an introductory economics course 40-some years ago during one’s beer-addled freshman year of college is qualification enough for running our nation’s economy.

If Jeb!™ wants to maintain his reputation as the smart Bush, he better get himself some better economic advisors. And listen to them.

Seattle Subway Franchise Lures Job Applicants with Promise of $13 Minimum Wage

Subway hiring at $13 an hour!

Subway woos Seattle “sandwich artists” with promise of $13 minimum wage. (via Working Washington)

Turns out McDonald’s isn’t the only fast food franchise to respond to Seattle’s job-killing minimum wage ordinance by hiring more workers. The Belltown area Subway is advertising on Craigslist, both “full time and part time positions,” with the promise of “Wages goes up to $13.00/Hour on 01/01/2016.” *

Which is weird, because the International Franchise Association has assured us that Seattle’s three-year phase-in to $15 an hour would drive their members out of business, and yet franchisees are not only continuing to hire workers, they’re using our higher minimum wage to lure applicants in Seattle’s increasingly competitive labor market.

Go figure.

* (Or at least, that’s what the ad used to promise before they edited the compensation numbers out of the ad after Working Washington called them out on their hypocrisy.)

David Brooks, the CBO, and Conventional Economics Are Wrong

WA restaurant industry employment growth 1990s

If raising the minimum wage always costs jobs, you wouldn’t know it from history.

David Brooks’ latest column in the New York Times is annoying for the way it lazily accuses Hillary Clinton of advocating for something she’s not. She does not want government to tell companies how to “structure and manage themselves.” She wants government to do a better job of setting the rules by which companies fairly compete in the market.

But that’s not my biggest beef with Brooks’ column. No, the lazy assertion that really ticks me off is this:

Clinton displayed no awareness that most federal requirements involve difficult trade-offs. According to the Congressional Budget Office, raising the minimum wage to even $10.10 an hour would increase pay for millions of workers, but would cost roughly 500,000 jobs.

First of all, that’s not what the CBO said. It said raising the minimum wage “could” reduce employment, not “would.” Big difference. In fact, the CBO said the job losses could range from a high of one million to a low of near zero.

Second, the CBO’s models are clearly wrong.

How can I assert this with such confidence? Because despite the job losses that are always predicted by these neo-classical models, there is actually no empirical evidence to suggest that these job losses ever occur! Indeed, according to the U.S. Department of Labor, “A review of 64 studies on minimum wage increases found no discernable effect on employment.” And we’ve been raising the minimum wage for 80 years!

Call me crazy, but when the economic model says one thing and reality says something entirely different, unlike Brooks, I’m going with reality.

The real battle in 2016 isn’t between right and left, Republicans and Democrats, or Bush versus Clinton. The real battle is between economic paradigms—the old paradigm that gave us models that wrongly predict that higher wages leads to fewer jobs, and that failed to predict the economic calamity of the Great Recession, versus a new, evidence-based paradigm that more accurately describes the real economy.

The conventional economic models are simply wrong. And we shouldn’t be shy about saying so.

Seattle McDonald’s “NOW HIRING” Despite Franchise-Killing Minimum Wage Ordinance

Downtown Seattle McDonald's still hiring despite higher minimum wage.

Downtown Seattle McDonald’s still hiring despite higher minimum wage.

When the International Franchise Association filed its hilarious lawsuit against Seattle’s $15 minimum wage, its lawyers warned that the ordinance’s “discriminatory” provisions could “cause some franchisees to shut their doors.” Maybe. But you wouldn’t know it from the “NOW HIRING” signs plastered in the windows at the McDonald’s at 3rd & Pine in downtown Seattle.

And not only are they hiring, they’re hiring at $11.00 an hour—$3.75 an hour more than the $7.25 federal minimum wage, $1.53 more than the $9.47 state minimum wage, and $1 an hour more than a small Seattle business whose employees earn tips and/or health benefits. And yet despite these higher labor costs, this particular McDonald’s is still hiring, and at 10am on a Tuesday, the restaurant was still packed.

Go figure!

Yeah, sure, it’s only $11.00 an hour—it’ll take another few years for $15 to fully kick in on franchises. But that’s already a 52 percent premium over the federal minimum wage, and we aren’t seeing any negative employment effects yet. Which suggests there’s a bit more room to set wages above the “market” rate than minimum wage opponents like to admit.

Hillary Clinton on Growth and Fairness: “You Can’t Have One Without the Other”

 

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I guess it’s too much to expect from a US presidential candidate to give an actual economics lesson in a major economic policy speech, but Hillary Clinton got at least part of the way there this morning in a pre-hyped address focused on the theme of “strong growth, fair growth, and longterm growth.” For far more important than her three-part prescription for raising middle class incomes in America is the way she inextricably links growth and fairness together:

In calling for a “growth and fairness” economy, Clinton explains, “you can’t have one without the other.”

While many pundits will focus on a perceived leftward shift in Clinton’s policy agenda—a new “paleoliberalism,” as Matt Yglesias calls it—more interesting is the apparent shift in the economic thinking that guides it. This is more than a mere rejection of Trickle-Down Economics; Clinton’s linking of growth and fairness signals a profound break from some of the basic economic tenets that have guided our nation’s economic policy for almost half a century.

And no, I don’t think I’m reading too much into this one little line.

We all knew that Clinton was going to call for things like immigration reform, gender pay equity, parental leave, high-quality universal preschool, and affordable daycare. That was made clear from the many previews her staff gave reporters. And as Clinton acknowledges, not only aren’t many of her proposals new, some are downright “battle-scarred.”

But what is new is the confident assertion that these sort of policies are “are essential to our competitiveness and growth” by enabling more Americans to fully participate in our economy. What’s good for the middle class is good for America, Clinton declared today, but not just because a majority of Americans are middle class.

Alas, Clinton didn’t delve into the details, but the underlying principles are clear. Innovation is essential to growth in the highly competitive technological global economy of the 21st century, and it is workforce diversity and inclusion that drives innovation. That’s why most major corporations have offices of diversity and inclusion reporting directly to c-level management. So it’s not just fair to women to provide the support necessary to allow them to stay in the workforce and rise up the ranks on an equal par with men—it’s good for corporate America and our economy as a whole, because we all benefit from the innovation that comes from workforce diversity.

And it is this economic calculus that flips neo-classical economics on its head, by shifting our focus from financial capital to human capital. The old school of American liberalism was largely ameliorative, using government to rein in the excesses of market capitalism through regulation, and to address the market’s inevitable inequities through redistributive programs and a strong social safety net. And sure, a lot of what Clinton proposes does the same.

But by recognizing that these programs are not just fair, they “are essential to our competitiveness and growth,” Clinton transcends paleoliberalism to embrace a more modern understanding of how the real economy really works.

“I believe we have to build a ‘growth and fairness’ economy,” declares Clinton, because “You can’t have one without the other.”

You won’t find this principle stated in any of the usual Econ 101 textbooks. But you will find it in a major economic policy speech from the 2016 Democratic frontrunner. And that’s a huge first step toward crafting an economic agenda that fits the reality of our 21st century economy.

Business Lobby Says Overtime Rule Is Bad for Workers or Something, Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah

Overworked and underpaid? The Obama Administration wants to help. (Image courtesy of marcolm at FreeDigitalPhotos.net.)

Who cares if you’re overworked and underpaid as long as you get to call yourself an “Assistant Manager”? (Image courtesy of marcolm at FreeDigitalPhotos.net.)

As both Paul and Cass have pointed out, the conservative response to President Obama’s proposed new overtime rule has been uncharacteristically muted. We’ve heard barely a peep from the hundred-or-so GOPers running for president, while what little pushback we’ve seen from the business lobby has been vague and generic.

The proposed overtime rules would “negatively impact our workforce,” whines the National Restaurant Association. A higher overtime threshold would “negatively impact small businesses,” the US Chamber of Commerce reflexively argues. Any change to the current rules would “harm job creation,” warns the National Retail Federation.

Blah, blah, blah.

Sound familiar? This is the same tired old argument the business lobby has long used against every proposed labor standard (minimum wage, child labor, abolition, etc.); there’s nothing particularly overtimey about it. Makes me wonder if their spokespeople are being paid by the hour, because they sure don’t seem to be working any overtime on this one.

If there’s anything novel about the anti-overtime rhetoric, it’s their weird argument that raising the threshold would somehow harm workers by removing the existing incentive for employers to misclassify workers as managers—as if the non-monetary reward of the “Assistant Manager” title is compensation enough for the 20-hours-a-week of unpaid overtime that often comes with it. (Spoiler alert: it isn’t!) But of course, there’s nothing in the proposed rule that prevents employers from handing out fancy job titles and paying overtime. So any threat to punitively take these titles away from newly non-exempt “managers” just comes off as kind of dickish.

Apart from that, it’s same old same old. Which is fine by me. The more the business lobby relies on the same rhetoric with which it is losing the Fight for $15, the less overtime I’ll have to put into tearing their arguments down.

When Wages Go Up, Employment Goes Down (Microsoft Style)

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella: “My package is this big.” (image source: Microsoft)

The most common rejoinder to any proposal to raise the minimum wage (or pretty much any labor standard) is that when wages go up, employment goes down. “When you raise the price of employment, guess what happens? You get less of it,” US House speaker John Boehner once told reporters in dismissing President Obama’s call to raise the minimum wage.

Which would be a pretty compelling argument against raising the minimum wage… assuming there was at least a shred of evidence to back it up.

Unfortunately for the trickle down crowd, there’s not. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, “a review of 64 studies on minimum wage increases found no discernable effect on employment.” And contrary to popular belief, relatively large minimum wage hikes like those recently passed in Seattle, San Francisco, and Los Angeles are not unprecedented. Of course, correlation does not equal causation, but when it comes to demonstrating an inverse relationship between wages and jobs, the best I could come up with was Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella’s $84.3 million compensation package correlating with the company’s largest round of layoffs ever:

The Redmond software company announced in July that it would eliminate 18,000 jobs, 14 percent of its workforce. Chief Executive Satya Nadella said the goal was to streamline the company and integrate its newly purchased phone-hardware business. Rounds of layoffs were carried out in July, September and October, and Microsoft said the process would be complete by June 30 of this year.

So there you have it. With his promotion to CEO, Nadella’s wages went up and Microsoft’s employment numbers went down—both quite dramatically. Not sure that’s exactly what Boehner had in mind, but it’s the closest I could come to proving his thesis.